Intraday Trades - 30.12.2015

Intraday: Year end ranging mkt. Nifty moved in-between PDH & PDL whole day. Two ranges working from last 3 days. Spotted 3 opportunities today.
(1)  BPB of RL, but refrained as there was no touch of UBB.
(2) Layer on Layer - PDH & DH. Was expecting a Test of DH & to short there. Missed the Trade of the day.
(3) Long on BOF of DL. scratched.
mkt Broke the PDL but still sustaining in Old Lower range. Tomorrow, going below old range is first sign of Bigger Trend Reversal.

Intraday Trades - 29.12.2015

Intraday: Mkt remained above Old range today.. Took 2 trades. one as TST & other as BOF of old Range.

Intraday trades - 28.12.2015

Intraday: As mentioned about Nifty sustaining in upper ranges on 23rd & 24th Dec, it moved upwards today. Three entries shown in chart-
(1) a BPB after COBB at PDH  (A Squeeze mentioned in 30 min chart shown in SS Series-3)
(2) a Tag on LBB in Squeeze
(3) another Tag on LBB in Squeeze. Overall a good day..

How to Locate Strong Setups -3 !!

(SS) Strong Setups Series - 3

Now you can know the bias of market -Up/ Down Sideways, what's next?

Next is my favourite Bollinger Bands.. We should use default settings of Bollinger Bands (20,2) as i am of the view, we should see what all people are looking at & infer with same information.

We are not gonna use any other kind of Support Resistance.. Lets keep the chart as cleaner as possible..

2nd Rule - Wait for BB Squeeze. but the challenge is to identify the squeeze. It looks like marked in below Nifty 15 min chart. Plz go through below questionnaire after the chart to get some clarification..

- What is the squeeze exactly ?? - When both of the Bollinger bands come nearer to each other and both BB are Flattish -neither Up or down (lesser than 20 degrees angle approx.. yeah yeah,, no need to measure with a protector, use naked eye). See the BB as marked above.

- How much nearer is nearer?? - Just have a look at the past candles & BB behaviour. From a bigger volatility, the mkt must have come to little volatility. Some people use ATR (14) for the purpose, but i like naked BB.

- When should we say the squeeze have started?? - When more than 5 candles formation is completed without touching any of the BB, we can say our desired Squeeze has started. Below Nifty 30 min chart has just formed one !!

- Shall we enter on break of Squeeze on touch or a Close outside BB (COBB) ?? - NOOOO, You will be Trapped !!

Will get back with few more examples & the Entry Pattern .. till then keep looking and analysing old Squeezes.. Its Fun to see how much it forms and how much time the mkt is in it especially in lower time frames...

Intraday Trades - 24.12.2015

Intraday: If you can recognize old ranges, Half the Job is done !! Just remember yesterday chart and think about the trades..
Mkt was ranging in last day range. Could manage with 2 good trades today which made the day!!

Intraday Trades - 23.12.2015

Intraday: Just have a look on the Range shifts.. Nifty is sustaining above the last Range - RH = 7855 NF and is forming a new Range with RL = 7855..
Lets see tomorrow, If  price enters in old range, we can see a bearish day else can be on Long side in upper ranges..

Due to X'mas holidays, Mkt is in tight range with less volumes. I will prefer to book within few points till 1st Jan'16

Intraday Trades - 22.12.2015

Positional: Sell signal still on, but Nifty seems to enter in a buying mode, so this decline should be used to buy tomorrow or day after for targets above 8000 NS.

Intraday: A Beautiful day with a beautiful "No Brainer Trade" at BB.. Just have a look at the below chart of Nifty Future - A Pattern similar to yesterday marked as (1) & (2). Here (1) is COBB followed by a Tag on UBB .. My favorite to trade at any strong DP..

Intraday Trades - 16.12.2015

Positional: Still Sell signal is ON..Just keep an eye on 7910-7820 NS Zone..

Intraday:  We trade Mkt as its always ranging without any bias. A Gap Up with a shorting opportunity (tho could have ended in SL) and another Short opportunity near Old RH. This went quite OK.

Intraday Trades - 15.12.2015

Positional: Mkt closed right into the old DPs which is a good short entry zone for lower targets of 7450 and more.. Token shorts initiated here.. Views still bearish till 7810 NS holds..

Intraday: A range formed at open. Two good entry opportunities today !!

Intraday Trades - 14.12.2015

Positional: Trend  is still down till 7810 NS is conquered.

Intraday: Beautiful Price action today which was too clear & is self-explanatory.. A good day to keep in records!

Some Good looking Midcaps on Day Timeframe

Looking for some Longs only this time as i am a Bullish on Nifty from last week till now.  Tuesday EOD will give final conclusion on Bull/bear..

Bhushan Steel -  A buy will be generated above PDH..



Educomp - Multi Top breakout is a BUY



India Hotel - Don't prefer hotel & airline stocks but this looks good Breakout. Entry can be done on a pullback near to 100 levels..



IDBI - A Breakout, now entry on BPB near 90 levels..



MPHASIS - This looks good for tomorrow entry at PDH. If somebody is intraday player, can enter better with some signal on 5 min chart..as PB seems complete..


BEML-  A range formed of Complex PB, Good entry signal above this range/ PDH as per risk appetite..

How to Locate Strong Setups -2 !!

(SS) Strong Setups Series - 2

Hey All, I am back after a long break !!  Hope everyone is doing great ..

Lets come back to Business ! Strong Setups-  For me, Price & Bollinger is all it requires to locate them. I am an intraday Nifty player, so will be fetching the charts of max 30 mins..  

1) Base of the Strong setups is to identify your Bias- Up or Down (yes No Sideways). We don't need any stupid thing to identify Trend.. If The Price is at the Right Upper edge of chart its Uptrend & if Price is at Right Lower edge, its Downtrend. Keep it Dirt simple !!

Lets see in below charts- One is Daily Chart & next is 15 min Nifty chart-

I am not gonna tell the answer, You are absolutely Right !! That's it, Is it too difficult to identify trend?  This gives us our 1st Rule- We will trade only in Trend direction for High probability strong setups, till our 1st Stop Loss gets hit, YES,  till our 1st Stop Loss gets Hit. Trading is Painful journey, Embrace.. 

(Though we will reduce this SL hitting chances considerably, but be prepared for all consequences)

This SL hitting really works, this helps in getting in each & every setup without any doubt, thereby increasing the effectiveness of system.

Trading is a probability game. If you will not take each & every trade, till you click the counter upto 30, you will eventually stuck in Bad trades & will loose the Best Ones  cursing ME :(

Now fetch some of the stock charts & check the trend thinking what should had been done today  trading them !

How to Locate Strong Setups !!

(SS) Strong Setups Series - 1

A lot of People ask me -"How to locate a Trade setup !!"  I always tell them, setups are everywhere, which can be traded also, but one should wait for a Strong trade Setup! That is more important !

Now the question is still Open - Which setups are Strong?

--This can't be put in a single post, so will try to explain in a series of posts.. Kindly have patience & go through with me in this whole journey, you will find it interesting & profitable too ! It will be written taking into consideration of novice traders with basic knowledge. I will try to analyze the live market setups (positional with the system). Lets see how it unfolds --

Lets start from a different angle-  Traders.
Every Trader is different. Each trader is unique with Unique personality, monetary needs, different trade size, risk capacities, Psychology, Fear levels, satisfaction levels, indicators & so on.
Remember, every damn indicator can work & works, if followed properly. But, every indicator has certain conditions to work. One needs to master few of them only, not over analyzing & paralyzing their decisions.. Look at the chart below with most important & trusted indicators (current Daily Chart of Nifty) if we can conclude the decision-

1) Nifty above all moving averages & EMAs (important ones) - means  UP/ Sideways (in case 1 MA is above)
2) MACD yet to cut down - means UP
3) RSI coming down from overbought zone - DOWN
4) Stochastic clearly DOWN
5) Trendlines - UP
6) Patterns - Rising Wedge - DOWN,  a small inverse H&S - UP & with a target
7) Price action - Higher Highs, higher lows - UP

so which will work & constitute Strong Setup ?  get off the screen & Think for a while below things-
1) Can all indicators/ patterns tells truth?
2) Are indicators really important?
3) Do they Lag?
4) Do we need 1 / 2 or 5 indicators along with PA, trendline...?

----------------------------------------------------
I will come straight to the point -
1) Can all indicators/ patterns tells truth? - Yes, they need to get Interpreted properly. One should use indicators as per traders personality - Example - I  use & Love Bollinger Bands
2) Are indicators really important? - for Positional definitely need to see few & good tool for conformation in Intraday also
3) Do they Lag? - may or may not - like Bollingers & RSI - they don't lag as much as people says.
4) Do we need 1 / 2 or 5 indicators along with PA, trendline...? - One or at the max 2 are enough for use.
Remember, Indicators tell a lie, but they don't lie together!

Anybody can go ahead with any indicator/ without indicator, but i would like to continue this journey with Price action & Bollinger Bands !!

to be continued..

Nifty Positional View - 12.07.2015

Positional: So the downward Bias ended, but to me, this doesn't mean an Upward trend has started. To me, it seems the market has entered in a Range as marked an i am in shorts.
1) Breakout of Range high has failed.
2) Nifty couldn't give my desired close outside my favorite BB
3) Tho MBB is supporting, Weekly trend is counter.

so overall, below 8480 NS One should be in shorts or can add Short position on a bounce up coming on Monday/Tuesday & should Tgt near 8100 odd levels..  Change to Up only a close above 8480.

Nifty Positional View - 15.06.2015

Positional: Daily Chart shown below with a good Downward Bias-

Now, the possibility arising are -
1) Short on BPB of the Low around 7940. Tgt is way below at 7750. Move should be fast enough & COBB will give more confidence.
2) Let it take a breather till 8160 & short it there. MBB should act as resistance & should support our position.

Nifty Positional View - 20.05.2015

Positional: Lets have a look at both Weekly & Daily Charts below -

1) Weekly chart is giving a blind bullish signal on LBB. It has happened twice before as marked..
2) A follow up candle & break of MBB will be good sign of strength.
3) Daily Chart on the other hand is going into DP zone.
4) Daily UBB is coming down- fast..
5) Daily Trendline is too far for a confluence.

So the plan is to be in Longs till Price touches 8470 odd levels & then if price gets a rejection from there, i will attempt a Short near to daily UBB.., else my final try for a Short will be near 8570 level..

Lets see how market unfolds ..

Weekly Chart - 

Daily Chart-

Nifty Positional View - 03.05.2015

Positional: Nifty moving down by providing a BPB on last Flip. Although Trend is still down, but -

1) there is Layer on Layer Below the recent Zone. Too many DP confluence.
2) A Bounce is expected ! which may go to 8385 - 8465.
3) If the Bounce breaks the recent Flip & sustains above, one can take Risky Longs for short term for above targets. But keep in mind, Mkt is still SELL on Rise.
4) A Fast downmove breaking below all the layers will call for a Major Fall.

As of now, Don't Short !  It doesn't mean to go Long! wait for the price to come out of the woods..
I am still in my Shorts with SL above Flip Candle. (I will prefer to Go Long here- Risky, but trading is always risky :)

Nifty Positional View - 20.04.2015

Positional: Mkt is moving down as expected. Exited & Shorted near 8800 NS as per plan.
Hope everybody is enjoying the Downtrend !!

Now, Nifty has broken all supports (& there is none for a Downtrend).. Exited 50% shorts at today close & Still holding rest with SL at 8620 NS.
Although LBB can be a decision point with confluence of old DP & TL, but No plan to buy till the Screen says "We are Reversing !!"

Nifty Positional View - 07.04.2015

Positional: Mkt is going to reach at critical levels. The BOF was strong, so in longs as per plan keeping my SL below today's low. Current Mkt range is 8800 ~ 8400 & will re-assess at 8800.
Pros-
1) OI resistance is at 8800, then 8900
2) Mkt taking good support at MBB
3) BOF has happened of desired DP, Trendline confluence.
Cons-
1) People are still positive, so it may turn bearish.
2) Plan of longs was for short term.People can book their profits.
3) Although close is above MBB, UBB is falling sharp.
4) Rollover is quite good - 77% for this month. Downtrend can continue

So One can Exit & Short on break of Tag of UBB.
BPB Longs only if uptrend doesn't loose steam (Current pace is quite OK)

Nifty Positional View - 24.03.2014

Positional: Today was a Volatile Day. Usually Volatile & small range day's are at the end of the move. Below is the chart of Nifty Spot.

1) Price has pulled back twice from MBB, but still COBB is missing.
2) UBB is still Flat !
3) Good DP just below with confluence of Long Term Trendline
  On the contrary,
1) Trend is down. So, till it turns, we can't build rosy pictures.. Its a falling market, so there is no Support.. only resistances !
2) LBB should have been flat at this time.
3) Expiry is just after 2 days, so mkt will be choppy. Need to re-analyze after expiry

My Preferred position will be a Long here/ near 8500 iff no COBB. It will be for short term
If COBB, i will short for next level shown.

Nifty Positional View - 07.03.2015

Positional: After an extended upmove, a Great Bearish Engulfing at UBB. One of my favorite BOF signal . It seems, Mkt can touch lower ranges near 8700.
Last flip shouldn't be a concern with such a strong signal.
RR also favorable for the short..

Nifty Positional View - 12.02.2015

Positional: Nifty hit an all time high and then a correction of nearly 50% has already completed. Daily Chart suggesting a move up to all time high as-
1) Price moved up after taking support at last Flip
2) Price Closed at last big DP
3) Price closed above MBB
4) OI range is 8600 ~ 9000. Support rising on 8700, but still some more time required.
-- Concern is only the last Fast Downmove, It may act as a fluid or may assess its strength --

for Intraday trades-
1) Mkt has moved from Last Lower Range to higher range.
2) Now Price is at Range low of 2nd Range.
3) For Intraday, i will be looking for an upward bounce from recent DPs til la Strong BOF occurs for downside.
-- Delhi polls are over & today's inflation data can cause a hit down for a small time, till longer tf trend asserts itself --

Nifty- Positional View - 19.01.2015

Positional:   Nifty is zooming to highs once again. The current move started from a BOF. It should touch last high, which is near by. Lets see daily chart --

+ ves..

1) Market is in Uptrend

2) New Ranges are Higher Ranges

3) Move started from a BOF, so a good one. Can expect it till all time high.

4) Price taking support at MBB in daily chart
5) Last bounce ended up at 8000, this may go less than that.

- ves..

1) Second Gap up done which never touched the old day range. A 3rd gap or gap down will call for a move Exhaustion

2) Candles forming are smaller ones

3) Yesterday was an Inside day, but today's move wasn't catching up.

4) 8700 has maximum OI.

My preferred position will be a Short on Strong BOF near 8700. Will change views only if price action speeds up approaching DP.